Conference

APFI Forum 2025: A Story of Synergy and Success

Last week, along with our CTO Mike Baxter and BDM Haymon Keeler, I attended the annual APFI Forum for fuel retailers, which this year was held on the Gold Coast. It’s a great opportunity to connect with those in the industry, and I wanted to share some of the key insights we took away with us.

The theme of the event, Success through Synergy, set the tone. In a sector as dynamic as the fuel industry, this gathering was a powerful reminder of the value of connection, collaboration and shared insight.

Starting at the macro level, economist Saul Eslake delivered an interesting keynote on the broader economic context. With geopolitical and policy uncertainty clouding the horizon, his words resonated: “In the face of uncertainty, businesses put off big decisions and workers put off decisions about big ticket items.”

Although productivity remains a challenge, especially in retail, Saul had a cautiously optimistic outlook, signalling that Australia has managed the uncertainty better than similar countries and is comparatively well placed. However, the future remains uncertain. Businesses need to make investments to drive steady improvement, and leaders need to be bold, forward-looking and ready to adapt.

Haymon Keeler and Mike Baxter in front of the Infinity booth at the APFI Forum.

Adaptation and synergies were the dual focus of a presentation by Fiona Hayes, CEO and Managing Director at 7-Eleven.  She spoke about how declining fuel and tobacco sales at service stations must be met head-on through a convergence of convenience, grocery and quick-service restaurants.

Fuel retailers need to make use of digital channels to reach customers beyond the forecourt by delivering food and other convenience offerings; those who do can reap huge opportunities. You can read more about these shifts in fuel convenience and the ways retailers can best respond in our recent blog post.

Change management and productivity were also central themes tackled by Stephen Scheeler, CEO of Omniscient and former CEO of Facebook ANZ, who spoke about AI, leadership and digital disruption. Stephen made the point that AI is now embedded in everyday life. It can best be used to get to where you want to go faster, and its interaction with the physical world is already having a day-to-day impact through robotics and self-driving cars such as Waymo.

Stephen believes that AI will augment human capabilities rather than replace jobs, using the example of the farmer who used to plough fields behind a horse but now uses a tractor to dramatically increase productivity. It was fascinating to hear his insights on this fast-moving technology.

We were also thrilled to get the rare chance to listen to David Goldberger, a pioneer in the Australian fuel industry and a leading reason why the country has such a strong independent fuel presence. In founding Solo in the 1970s and Liberty Oil in the 1990s, David, along with his long-time business partner David Wieland, created a situation where the big players had to work with him, and he's created space for others to follow. From introducing discount fuel in Victoria and New South Wales to establishing a wholesale and fuel distribution business, David truly is a founding father of the independent fuel business.

David treated us to a wide-ranging conversation that covered the history and future of independent fuel retailing which the audience thoroughly enjoyed.  

The event ended with a gala dinner where the Australian Convenience and Fuel Awards were presented. Congratulations to the winners from the different awards categories, and thanks to the Australian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association (ACAPMA) for a very successful event!  


The downturn begins: Craig Woolford on how convenience retail can battle declining sales growth 

There’s been regular debate about this year’s retail sales slowdown – when is the tipping point, how long will it last and how far will it drop? MST Marquee analyst Craig Woolford recently shared the outlook for convenience retail, plus three opportunities to exploit and three challenges to anticipate. 


Last month I attended ACAPMA’s excellent 2023 Asia Pacific Fuel Industry (APFI) Forum event in Brisbane. With attendees spanning fuel retailers and suppliers from across our region, it sparked lively discussions on the trends changing mobility and convenience retail. 

One of the highlights was a keynote from Craig Woolford of MST Marquee on the outlook for convenience retail in Australia. It included valuable insights for fuel and c-store operators across our region. 


Retail spending has slowed, but is not falling off a cliff 

Craig began by sharing the latest MST Marquee/ABS data showing how overall retail sales growth is slowing. While there was growth of 3% year on year for the three months to July 2023, interest rate increases have triggered a drop in consumer sentiment and spending slowdown. 

Craig predicts the trough in retail sales to arrive late calendar 2023. And while income tax cuts make him more positive for fiscal 2025, he predicts sales will be subdued until late calendar 2024, making it a lean 18 months for retailers. 

The data showed divergence between the major retail categories. Dining out is holding up well, alongside sales growth in supermarket, liquor, pharmacy and beauty, but volumes are generally weak. 

Retail spending is also starting to lose share of wallet to non-retail spending. Craig explained that this is the ‘normalisation’ path for consumers as we gradually revert to pre-Covid spending behaviours. Travel and dining out are winning our share of spend, along with ‘needs’ like housing and health.  

While there are several drivers for the slowdown this year, Craig described three key swing factors - drags from fading price inflation and higher interest rates, and a boost from consumer drawdowns on household savings. 


Opportunities in convenience retail  

Craig explained that convenience retailers can look to boost sales growth in three key areas:   

1. Exploit growth in dining out 

The trend towards dining out highlights a consumer now looking for convenience, not just experience. Consumer preferences long-term have moved from in-home dining towards dining out, with employment growth, excess savings and inbound tourism all supporting this trend. 

There’s an opportunity for convenience retailers to capture share in dining out, with cafes and fresh food customised to sites and regions. 

2. Drive up basket size through an expanded range  

The major supermarket chains generate good sales productivity through convenient store locations and a favourable basket mix, with average basket size around AU$45-50. Craig urged attendees to think about what could drive a 15-20% higher basket spend for their business. 

Successful retailers are building basket size through range extension. We’re seeing this with our own fuel and convenience retail clients, with many focussed on expanding their c-store offerings (combined with the potential of EV charging in fuel retail). 

3. Tap growth in online food retail by offering fulfilment 

Online retail accounts for around 7% of the entire food industry, spanning supermarkets, convenience, restaurants and takeaways. Craig described how it will continue to grow in high single digits, but the cost of fulfilment remains a barrier to a viable online food offering.  

C-store retailers can play a role by developing new business models that take advantage of convenient locations to become home delivery hubs. 


Challenges to anticipate  

Craig closed his keynote by sharing three challenges likely to test the mettle of convenience retailers:  

  • Declining tobacco sales: Tobacco sales are falling 10-15% and the fall is faster in some convenience channels, with tobacconists winning share. The tobacco industry is grappling with illicit tobacco and vaping, but with “limited government action” to address the problems.  

  • Rising wage costs: The 5.75% increase in retail award rates and 0.5% superannuation levy rise have made wage cost growth a problem into 2024 and beyond, with rates likely to rise by more than 4% in fiscal 2025. Craig said the Australian Fair Work Commission tends to take a balanced approach but noted that wage rate growth is currently less than inflation and could result in wage rate growth ahead of inflation in fiscal 2025. 

  • Rising occupancy costs: JLL Research has said that the forecast pipeline of new floor space will be just 37% of the 10-year historical average, with construction costs and high interest rates limiting new projects. That means floor space growth will be tight and could drive up rents. 


Are you looking for new ways to drive c-store revenue and profitability? 

Our partnerships with fuel and convenience retailers delivering disruptive, world-first experiences give us a deep understanding of changing consumer needs and technology trends. Get in touch if you’re looking for help to reduce costs, boost productivity and improve margins. 


For more on how to deliver every c-store customer a personalised, fast and seamless experience, download our new ebook:  

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